What if you could see how Steam has changed over time?

This is the question we asked ourselves at Game Oracle. For those who are new here, we've built a map of Steam, a mathematical model that tells us how similar games are to one another. One of the super-powers that our map unlocks is the ability to visualise the entire Steam marketplace as a heatmap in a 2D image. This heatmap is shown below and includes all the games on Steam as of July 2025.

The Steam Map can be thought of as a "landscape" that describes how densely populated the marketplace is in different genres, sub-genres, and micro-niches. Imagine if we could throw every game on Steam onto a big surface with similar games naturally clumped together. This would form mountains where there are large volumes of similar games and between those mountains we would have valleys where fewer, more unique games would live. This is what the image above shows. Bright red areas are mountains of very similar games whereas deep blue areas are unpopulated valleys where games are particularly unique.

So we asked, what if we could watch how this landscape formed? Could we visualise the ebb and flow of game developer trends or the growth and collapse of genres over time?

Steam Map Time Travel

We decided to start from 2012; this was the beginning of the Steam Greenlight Era when the marketplace began to grow significantly. In the video below we travel through time from 2012 up until present day. We've labelled each area of the map to help you identify the types of games in each region of the market. As we progress through time notice how deep red regions form as genres begin to flourish. We also see complex sub-genres form within each region.

As fascinating as this is, it can be difficult to really see what is growing or declining in interest on a year-by-year basis. Luckily, this is where clustering analysis can be really useful. We can use a clustering algorithm to group similar games together into market segments. By measuring the growth or decline of these segments over time we can get a sense of how game development trends have changed over the years.

In the video below we show what market segments we used and where they live on our 2D Steam Map in 2025. Each white bubble is a market segment which is a cluster of games with similar themes, mechanics, and visual styles. The size of the bubble represents how many games exist in that market segment. This should make sense since the bigger bubbles sit above the red regions regions on our map, signifying a densely populated market.

Now that we've simplified the information into market segments, we can visualise how they have grown over time. In the next video below we've taken the same market segments from the video above and visualised how they've changed from 2012 to present day. You'll notice they start out small and increase as the number of games released in each segment grows.

To help visualise patterns and trends we have coloured each segment with a gradient as follows:

• Red segments show a large growth within the segment that calendar year i.e. lots of new games released compared to the year before
• White segments show little or no growth within the segment that calendar year i.e. the same number of new releases as the previous year
• Blue segments show a contraction in the segment i.e. less titles were released in this segment compared to the previous calendar year

Now we're getting somewhere! Let's dive in a little deeper and take a look at some of the biggest movers.

The Growth & Collapse of VR

VR really exploded onto the scene back in 2016, primarily driven by the consumer launch of major, high-fidelity VR headsets, including the Oculus Rift and the HTC Vive. This hardware finally made immersive, room-scale virtual reality accessible to home PC users, providing a platform for which developers could create content.

The release of these devices spurred a rush of software development, as studios ranging from large companies to independent creators were eager to explore the new medium and its unique gameplay possibilities, such as first-person experiences with motion controls.

As a result, the number of VR-supported titles on Steam grew rapidly. This wave of new content included many notable and foundational titles that helped define the early VR landscape, such as the sandbox game Job Simulator, the action-RPG Chronos, the sci-fi shooter Hover Junkers, and the spy-themed puzzle game I Expect You to Die.

However, the expansion into VR would turn out to be a classic bubble. Following the initial surge, the VR game market experienced a significant slowdown in major releases from 2018 onwards. This was not a total collapse but rather a cooling-off driven by a negative feedback loop that hampered market growth.

In the chart below we can see the number of new VR releases per year plotted in green. This is compared to the average number of new releases amongst all market segments on our map, shown as a dotted white line. There is a massive spike between 2016 and 2018 followed by a cooling-off period and a sustained decline with new releases today lagging behind the average.

The persistently high cost of VR headsets and the powerful PCs they require has remained a major barrier for many consumers, limiting the size of the potential audience. With a relatively low rate of headset adoption, large game studios, which are often risk-averse, became hesitant to make the significant financial investment required for big-budget VR projects^1,2. This reluctance from major developers like EA, Bethesda, and even Sony likely led to a noticeable drop in the number of noteworthy new VR games.

The lack of compelling, new "platform-seller" titles gave consumers fewer reasons to buy into the VR ecosystem, which in turn has reinforced hesitation to make VR games. As a result, the VR gaming landscape has become increasingly dominated by indie developers serving a niche audience. But even within that niche, users have experienced fatigue from playing similar types of games, with bestseller lists often featuring the same titles from the 2019-2020 era³.

Despite this, some argue that a re-invigoration of the VR market is anticipated, driven by key technological advancements and expanding applications that are lowering the barrier to entry and enhancing user experience⁴. While the growing market and support from major platform holders like Meta (formerly Oculus) and Sony create a favorable environment, indie developers must be mindful of several pitfalls. High development costs for specialised hardware and software remain a significant hurdle, often requiring developers to seek external funding or use personal savings^5,6.

The Quiet Growth of NSFW Games

You wouldn't know it from browsing the storefront, but Steam is a hot-bed of NSFW content, with a huge variety of adult themed games ranging from romantic visual novels to BDSM simulators. The number of such games on Steam has changed drastically over the years. In the chart below we have plotted the number of new NSFW releases (green) compared to the average number of new releases amongst all the market segments we identified with our clustering (white dotted line).

What was once only a fraction of the marketplace has grown into a significant sector for Steam. The number of NSFW games released on Steam began growing rapidly after 2018, shown in the chart above where NSFW games begin to significantly out-pace average market growth.

In June 2018, Valve shifted its content policy to "allow everything" on Steam, as long as it wasn't illegal or "straight up trolling"⁷. This decision opened the floodgates for NSFW games, leading to thousands of raunchy visual novels and adventure games entering the market.

The primary catalyst for this growth was Steam's 2018 policy change, which created a permissive environment for developers to publish adult content⁸. The simple market reality that "sex sells" also plays a significant role, as even mainstream titles with mature themes have seen success, encouraging more developers to enter the space⁹.

However, the tides might be shifting and we could see Valve shift policies when it comes to the NSFW market. In July 2025, Valve began removing some adult games from Steam due to pressure from payment processors like Visa and Mastercard^10,11,12. The company updated its guidelines to prohibit content that violates the standards of these financial partners. This has created uncertainty for developers, as the new rules are considered vague and shift content moderation responsibility to third-party financial companies. Only time will tell if this causes a major contraction in the number of NSFW games published on Steam in the future.

What Happened in 2019?

If you look at the growth and decline of market segments, 2019 was an unusual year with the majority of market segments seeing fewer releases compared to 2018.

The data indicates that 2019 was not a year of major decline in the overall number of game releases on Steam, but rather a year where the platform's explosive growth hit a plateau. This slowdown can be attributed to several interconnected factors that created a more challenging environment for developers, particularly in the indie segment.

Following Valve's "allow everything" policy in 2018, the platform was flooded with new titles, making it incredibly difficult for individual games to gain visibility. This phenomenon, sometimes called the "indiepocalypse," meant that many developers struggled to get their games noticed amidst tens of thousands of other titles^13,14. This inhospitable environment likely led some developers to delay or cancel projects.

In 2018 we also saw the launch of the Epic Games Store (EGS), the first major competitor to Steam's dominance in over a decade. EGS actively courted developers with two key incentives: a favourable revenue split and exclusivity deals. This new competition meant that a number of titles that might have launched on Steam in 2019 were instead released exclusively on EGS or other platforms^15,16.

The market saturation and new competition had a measurable negative impact on independent developers. A widely cited report from the publisher No More Robots analysed the indie market on Steam in 2019 and found alarming trends compared to 2018¹⁶:

• Median game sales for indie titles dropped by 70% 
• Median revenue for indie titles fell by 47%

This stark financial reality made launching on Steam a much riskier proposition for smaller studios. Developers were earning less money per game, which likely contributed to a more cautious approach, leading to fewer releases.

Markets That Slowed in 2024

We have spoken a lot about the history of Steam in this article so far, but what can our analysis teach us about more recent times? Let's start by looking at what market segments saw a major contraction in 2024 i.e. what segments saw a significant reduction in the number of new releases in 2024 compared to 2023:

• VR Continues to Decline: unsurprisingly the VR market segments saw a large contraction, continuing past trends. The largest of these segments saw around 15% fewer games released compared to 2023. There might still be opportunities to innovate in this space, but with falling sales hanging over the industry¹⁷ VR might be too risky for many developers
• The Mysterious Decline of Point & Click Detective & Investigation Games: once a popular segment amongst devs with hits like the Broken Sword series, King’s Quest, Grim Legend, and the Sherlock Holmes franchise by Frogwares, this market segment saw a collapse in new titles, declining by 18% compared to 2023. This doesn't mean that games can no longer succeed in this space, with games like Aurora Hills: Chapter 1 racking up an estimated 75k sales on Steam in 2024. But perhaps many developers have moved onto new trends?
• Indie Wrestling Games Giving Up the Fight: the wrestling simulator space is an incredibly difficult space to compete for indie devs with the official WWE games acting as a blackhole for player attention; even a AAA competitor like AEW: Fight Forever struggles to find success in this space. It is unfortunately unsurprising to see a decline in this market sector, especially at a time when game developer budgets are stretched and it's difficult to take risks. Looking to the future however, there are some indies that are choosing to take the gamble, with promising titles in the pipeline like Ultra Pro Wrestling and Wrestle Story. So watch this space, perhaps this segment will grow again!
• Mahjong Over Saturation: a very specific niche, this market segment of mostly Mahjong-based games saw a 39% reduction in the number of titles released in 2024 compared to 2023. This segment is quite saturated given its niche audience and most players appear to be served by free-to-play titles, including the 2024 title Mahjong Soul. Perhaps there are some opportunities here for introducing new mechanics and themes, which appears to be the strategy by games like Aojenjo: Infinite Hands. For now however, this appears to be a tough area for devs to find success.
• Fewer Devs Boarding the Train Sims: despite numerous successful releases in 2024 such as SimRail - The Railway Simulator, Railroads Online, and Unrailed 2: Back on Track, the train simulator segment actually saw around 17% fewer releases in 2024 compared to 2023. It is unlikely that the shift in the number of releases reflects a simple lack of interest in this segment but rather a shift of focus in support for existing titles, DLCs, and new subscription services^18,19. It is once again a difficult segment to break into given the established titles in this space.

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What To Expect From 2025

So what can we say about 2025 so far? It is difficult to predict what segments will experience the most growth since most titles are released around October and developers are not always clear regarding when their games will be released. At the time of writing this article however, it seems pretty clear that the decline in VR titles will likely continue this year. We can also see significant growth in multiple segments so far:

• Life Simulators are Popping: The life simulator genre is experiencing a significant surge in popularity, with the number of new releases more than doubling compared to the previous year. A standout title in this growing market is inZOI, which introduces a new level of realism with its crisp, lifelike graphics, challenging the traditionally cartoonish aesthetic of the genre. Alongside this trend toward realism, more whimsical 2D life sims like To Pixella and Little Sim World continue to appeal to players. The genre's expansion also extends to more niche and humorous titles, such as Streamer Life Simulator 2, reflecting a diversification of themes within the category.
• Fishing for Success: A notable trend is emerging with the rise of cozy idle fishing simulators, a niche that is adjacent to the life simulator genre. These games are designed to capture the tranquil experience of casting a line while the world passes by. This segment has seen explosive growth, with a 150% increase in new releases this year. This surge includes several indie hits, such as Cast n Chill, Nice Day for Fishing, Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi, and Cornerpond. The trend shows no signs of slowing, as many more titles in this subgenre are scheduled for release in the coming year.
• Idles & Clickers: Games like Cornerpond and Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi straddle the desktop idler and clicker genre which has also seen a significant surge in new releases, with a 120% increase in new titles this year so far. Quirky idle experiences that you can have running at the bottom of your screen whilst you go about your daily PC activities is a real trend this year. Some notable releases so far include Tiny Pasture, Desk Garden, and My Little Life.
• Card Games Re-imagined: The wild success of games like Balatro and Buckshot Roulette is still impacting developer trends with games like Big Winner, Happy Poker, Bonesaw, and Boo! Are you scared? The Chests Game adapted traditional card game mechanics with bizarre new ones and thematic twists. A standout in this crowd for us is Deckline, an atmospheric war-horror card game. It would be easy to argue that this segment will quickly become over-saturated and bore players, but so far game developers are continuing to innovate and bring fresh ideas to the table that keep players engaged.
• Deckbuilders, Deckbuilders Everywhere: The roguelike deckbuilder still remains a popular choice for game developers with a 125% increase in new titles compared to 2024. The big winners so far have been Monster Train 2, Yao-Guai Hunter, and Sol Cesto. It should be no surprise that this segment has continued to grow, but with such fierce competition, developers are going to have to innovate to stay fresh in this space. 
• New Typing Genre: There is a growing trend in unique typing games, the most creative being Blood Typers a type-to-kill survival horror co-op. This segment has seen an enormous 225% increase in new releases compared to 2024. There is a diverse range of concepts and themes emerging in this space with titles such as NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD: Typing of The Net and TypInc. This segment is definitely one to watch!

As the Steam platform continues to evolve, the market is seeing explosive growth in hyper-niche genres, from cozy fishing simulators to horror typing games. This analysis shows that innovation within established formulas is key for developers to capture player interest in an increasingly crowded and diverse landscape.

References

1. https://newsroom.technavio.org/vr-in-gaming-market-industry-analysis
2. https://insidetelecom.com/why-vr-might-never-take-off/
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6eKxApple8
4. https://www.abiresearch.com/press/lower-entry-barrier-and-improved-content-performance-create-a-2024-inflection-point-for-a-us100-billion-virtual-reality-market-by-2027
5. https://mcvuk.com/development-news/indies-and-virtual-reality/
6. https://www.soup.io/the-challenges-of-vr-game-development-and-how-to-overcome-them
7. https://www.themarysue.com/does-it-feel-like-theres-more-porn-on-steam-thats-because-there-is/
8. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44393415
9. https://kotaku.com/youtube-jesse-cox-sex-game-mass-effect-witcher-3-pc-1851451952
10. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/07/steam-cracks-down-on-some-sex-games-to-appease-payment-processors/
11. https://techstory.in/steam-delists-adult-games-after-pressure-from-payment-providers/
12. https://www.gamesradar.com/games/valve-confirms-pressure-from-banks-and-card-companies-is-to-blame-for-the-storefront-axing-adult-steam-games-loss-of-payment-methods-would-prevent-customers-from-being-able-to-purchase-other-titles/
13. https://www.pcgamesn.com/steam/games-released-in-2019
14. https://www.gamedaily.biz/year-over-year-game-release-numbers-slowed-for-steam-in-2019/
15. https://screenrant.com/steam-indie-sales-down-70-percent-report/
16. https://www.gamedaily.biz/report-steam-sales-and-revenue-drop-significantly-year-over-year-no-more-robots/
17. https://www.gamesindustry.biz/video-games-spending-by-young-americans-is-dropping-sharply-report-suggests
18. https://www.gamespress.com/Train-Simulator-Classic-Celebrates-15-years-with-2024-arrival-and-intr
19. https://blog.acer.com/en/discussion/1569/best-train-simulator-games-in-2024