Wishlist Conversion Rates - What We Know So Far

For any developer preparing to launch a game on Steam, the wishlist is a critical metric. In theory, it represents a direct line to potential customers, a tangible measure of pre-launch interest, and a vital tool for forecasting success. But the central question for every developer remains: what is a wishlist actually worth? How does this measure of interest translate into the sales that will ultimately determine a game's fate?

Over the years, industry analysts have worked to demystify the relationship between wishlists and sales, offering valuable benchmarks for developers. Here's what we've learned so far:

• Visibility and the "Gold Standard": while it is widely believed wishlists are crucial for securing a spot in Steam's Popular Upcoming section (the most common baseline discussed is 7,000 to 10,000 wishlists to gain attention) they're not the ultimate driver of visibility. Valve considers actual purchases the "gold standard". Once a game launches, the algorithm priorities revenue generation to feature a title in the highly coveted New & Trending section. This has led to the widespread belief in arbitrary thresholds, with publishers often targeting 30,000 wishlists or more to create a cushion that increases the odds of hitting the necessary revenue targets, even with a low conversion rate^1,2.

• Conversion Rate Benchmarks: data analysis from 2024 has provided some general expectations for sales. Research indicates a median first-month sales conversion rate of about 27% of a game's total launch wishlists. However, this can be influenced by several factors. Games in Early Access tend to see lower conversions (around 20%), while higher-priced games also see a dip, though they often earn more per wishlist. Interestingly, launch discounts haven't shown a strong correlation with higher conversion rates, suggesting that the most interested players will buy the game regardless^3,4.

It is crucial to remember that outside of Valve and the developers themselves, no one knows the absolute wishlist or sales figures for any given game. To analyse these trends, we must rely on estimations. The number of wishlists is typically estimated using the Boxleiter method, which multiplies a game's follower count by a specific factor to approximate its wishlists. Therefore, all findings, including those in this article, are based on these estimated figures. While data from sources like GameDiscoverCo provides more certainty through direct developer surveys, it's important to recognise that this still represents a small sample of the thousands of games released on Steam.

In this article we want to dive into the wishlist-to-sales ratio ourselves and lean on the power of our Steam map to help understand the variation amongst different genres. In such a diverse and complex market, we find it difficult to believe that there is a "one size fits all" approach to marketing and wishlists, and we expect to see a lot of variation in the power of wishlists depending on the game title. We're also curious to see how these ratios are fairing in the 2025 economic climate after a difficult year for sales^5,6.

The Data

We had one simple question: "what is the estimated wishlist-to-sales ratio after launch and how does it vary between different categories of games?" To answer this question we collected statistics on 10,656 Steam games released between October 2024 and July 2025. We also excluded free-to-play games and games from large AAA studios, since we want to focus on indie titles and small-to-medium size studios.

In our first round of analysis we separated early access launches from full releases. Similar to Gamalytic³, we found that early access wishlist-to-sales ratio was about ~8% less than full releases. Since this is not new information and we wanted to simplify the analysis to focus on our core question, we combined early access and full release data for the remainder of our analysis.

Once we had our 10K+ games with their estimated wishlists at launch, we calculated their estimated sales at 1 week and 1 month after launch. Finally, we wanted to understand how different genres, sub-genres, and niches differed when it came to wishlist-to-sales ratio. So we used our Steam Map to cluster games into market segments, grouping games with similar visual styles, mechanics, and themes together. This was similar to how we analysed market segments in our evolution of Steam analysis.

How Does Wishlist-to-Sales Ratio Vary?

Let's start with the simple case and look at the distribution of wishlist-to-sales ratio across all games at 1 week and 1 month after launch.

There is clearly a lot of variation amongst games, with wishlist-to-sales ratio being as low as 0.01 for some titles and exceeding 1 for a few lucky games, meaning they sold more copies in their first week than they had wishlists. The distribution shifts slightly to the right 1 month after release, with a slightly higher wishlist-to-sales ratio on average by this point. The difference is small though; it is widely understood that first month sales are a core performance indicator^8,9,10 and allow enough time for wishlist conversions to take effect. With that in mind let's proceed by looking at the first month of estimated sales.

On the distribution above we have shown the median estimated wishlist-to-sales ratio as a red dotted line. Our median estimate is around 0.12, which is quite a bit lower than other estimates that have varied between 0.15 and 0.25^3,4,10. There are a few possible explanations for this:

1. It could simply be our methodology. As we already mentioned, estimating wishlists and units sold is a tricky business and relies on finely tuning parameters in your Boxleiter calculations. Unfortunately, there is no right answer and we will always have to accept a degree of uncertainty here, which is why it is important to make relative comparisons to similar titles when planning for your future game and judging past game performance. 
2. This reflects our choice to combine early access and full releases into a single dataset. This could be reducing the average given that early access titles are known to have lower conversion rates³.
3. It is not clear whether estimates from other sources included free-to-play or large AAA studios in their analysis, which again might have inflated the wishlist-to-sales ratios they reported.
4. We all know that 2024 was a particularly hard year for the industry and 2025 hasn't really been much better so far^11,12,13, so our estimates (based on recent data) could be reflecting the trends in consumer spending, with gamers willing to wishlist a game, but less willing to commit to a purchase.

We've also highlighted, in green, where the wishlist-to-sales ratio is 1. Games that hit this magic spot and above have exceeded expectations and sold more games than they have wishlists. These games can be considered as 'unicorns' given their rarity. We're going to discuss these titles a little later on, and what we can learn from their marketing techniques and design decisions, but for now let's take a closer look at the general patterns in wishlist-to-sales ratio.

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Is 7,000 Wishlists the Golden Number?

This is a number we see thrown about online a lot, and the answer to this question unfortunately is... it depends. If we plot the estimated number of wishlists against the estimated number of sales after one month it is plainly obvious that more wishlists increases your chances of making more sales. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone! Here is a nice scatter plot to drive the point home.

However, there is huge variation in the number of estimated sales, especially when the estimated number of wishlists is below 10,000. So although more wishlists is better (of course) there is no single magic number that guarantees sales. 

So what are the main factors that drive the wishlist-to-sale ratio? We've already mentioned that early access games, on average, have lower ratios than full releases; some players just do not want to commit to purchasing a game whilst it's still under development.

The other unsurprising factor is the quality of the game. In the bar chart below we can see that poorly reviewed games have much lower wishlist-to-sales ratios than games with more positive reviews.

Just to drive home how important the quality of the game is, here is a boxplot (below) that compares the estimated number of sales in the first month (y-axis) for games that are categorised by their estimated wishlists at launch (x-axis). We've divided the games into those with greater than 70% positive reviews (green) and those with less than 70% positive reviews (red). The overall trend is clear, the more wishlists the higher the median number of estimated sales in the first month; on a boxplot this median is shown by the line in the middle of each box.

The difference between good and bad quality games (where "good" is defined as having more than 70% positive reviews) is abundantly clear regardless of the number of wishlists you start out with.

It is important to note that we have hid the outliers here for clarity, so the boxplot only shows games within the 25th and 75th percentile. This is not to mislead you, but to focus on the median number of games, the general trend, and the impact of game quality. In other words, we're not saying there are no games with less than 2000 wishlists that sold greater than 1000 units in their first month. We'll come back to some of these outliers soon.

However, the boxplot above doesn't only highlight the importance of game quality, it also shows just how much variation exists in estimated sales. Take a look at each of the starting wishlist brackets and you'll see that for most games the estimated units sold can vary from a few hundred to several thousand, regardless of the the starting wishlist count; this is especially true for games with >10,000 wishlists at launch. Why is this the case?

We suspected that another factor that differentiates wishlist-to-sales ratios amongst games is the type of game created. This is the tricky part, because it is incredibly difficult to categorise games; there is such a wide variety of gameplay mechanics, visual art styles, themes, and features. Traditionally you would use user-defined tags to overcome this, but as we have discussed before, these tags can be incredibly misleading. That is why we created the Steam Map and we've used it to cluster games into market segments to help understand how wishlist-to-sales ratios differ between different types of games.

Below we have plotted the distribution of median wishlist-to-sales ratios amongst all the market segments. As you can see, the median wishlist-to-sales ratio averages around 0.12, but there is a lot of variation around this point, demonstrating how wishlist-to-sales ratios vary depending on the area of the market your game caters to.

When investigating these market segments this is what we found. On the left-hand side of the distribution we have the segments with the lowest average wishlist-to-sales ratio. The kind of segments we found here included:

• Games with a strong adult-theme (i.e. NSFW)
• Visual novels, especially those with themes around dating
• Political strategy games
• Quirky city building games
• Turn-based strategy war games
• RPGs with a top-down pixel art style and dark narratives
• Fast-paced and rhythm VR games

On the other hand, segments with higher average wishlist-to-sales ratio included:

• Cosy point & click puzzle games - mixture of high quality hand-drawn graphics & pixel art
• Arcade-like destruction games with creative variations of the fast-paced Bomberman-like gameplay
• Casual physics puzzle games
• Immersive physiological horrors, especially those that incorporate first-person perspectives and walking simulation
• Idle games, casual clicker and automation games with clever management and economic gameplay that is both complex and accessible

It is hard to pinpoint the exact reason why we see wishlist-to-sales ratios like we do for the market segments. In the case of NSFW games it could be due to underestimating sales as a result of fewer players engaging with reviews. As for the other segments, market saturation and fundamental differences in player behaviours could be drivers. We think it is also safe to assume that the wishlist-to-sales ratios vary over time amongst market segments as trends rise and fall.

The key take away is that rather than using a single generic wishlist-to-sales conversion ratio when forecasting for your game and planning around your release, you can generate more accurate forecasts by looking at games that are similar to your game and specifically in your market segment. This helps avoid false expectations and nasty surprises.

What Can We Learn From the Outliers

The data clearly shows that developers should be encouraged to engage in marketing as soon as possible to accumulate interest in their game; wishlists are a great way of capturing and measuring that interest.

But what if you didn't manage to hit your wishlist goals before launch? It is important to understand that the most important factor is the quality of your game. No amount of marketing will save a buggy or boring experience. However, there are plenty of examples in the time period we studied where a game sold more copies in its first month than it had wishlists. There was 731 games (7%) in fact.

So what made these games different? We believe it was a clever mixture of design choices that lend themselves to viral gameplay moments and conscious marketing efforts during product launch.

Nubby's Number Factory - High-energy gameplay that was ideal for TikTok

The indie game Nubby's Number Factory is a plinko-style roguelike. Despite having only around 1,500 wishlists at launch it sold an estimated 200,000 copies within the first month! This success can be attributed to a combination of savvy marketing by its solo developer, Ethan "MogDog" Anderson, and key viral moments driven by the streaming community.

Anderson identified TikTok as the primary platform to build an audience. The marketing strategy was to create short, high-energy video clips of gameplay that were designed to immediately capture attention with their "abrasive, strange, visceral, and textural imagery"¹⁴. The goal was to induce a "flow state" similar to scrolling through social media. This approach proved successful, amassing millions of views and thousands of followers over several months. Tutorial videos showing how the game's unique, retro 3D graphics were made also went viral, with one reaching 1.5 million views¹⁴.

Another significant catalyst for the game's sudden success was when popular streamers began playing it. Anderson noted his surprise in just how powerful these streamers were for his sales. Having sold around 1,000 copies in his first week, a couple of popular streamers picked up the game and caused his sales to balloon by another 30,000; a sudden burst in popularity that he admits he wasn't really prepared for¹⁴.

The game's unique and addictive gameplay, described as a mix of Peggle and modern roguelikes, generated "overwhelmingly positive" reviews on Steam. It is clear that Anderson's design choices and skill as a game developer are clearly a major factor in the game's success, but Anderson also recognised the power of platforms like TikTok. He stayed actively engaged with his community through a Discord server and posted regular updates on Steam. Ultimately, it was the combination of developer and marketing skill that helped him defy the odds.

Metal Garden - The power of direct influencer outreach

While the indie first-person shooter Metal Garden appeared to have a quiet launch, its post-release interest was driven by organic, word-of-mouth promotion within the gaming community and an active influencer outreach strategy. The game, created by solo developer Alexandra Herout under the name Tinerasoft, only had an estimated 200 wishlists on launch and yet it now has around 850 reviews at the time of writing, translating to an estimated 38,000 sales.

Tinerasoft actively reached out to gaming influencers and YouTubers with several content creators producing videos that praised the game's atmosphere, tight gameplay, and nostalgic feel reminiscent of mid-2000s shooters like Halo and Half-Life^15,16,17. This exposure introduced the game to a wider audience of engaged fans of this genre.

The game's discovery by players led to organic discussions on platforms like Reddit. One post on the r/gaming subreddit, titled "Went Steam Dumpster Diving and found a Gem," described Metal Garden as having one of the best atmospheres the user had experienced in a game recently, which helped generate interest¹⁸. Thanks to solid execution, Metal Garden gained overwhelmingly positive reviews that continues to drive sales.

Metal Garden did not experience a single, massive viral moment in the way some other games do. Its rise was more of a slow burn, fuelled by a collection of smaller, positive discussions and content pieces. In essence, the success of Metal Garden is a testament to the power of community-driven promotion and the appeal of a well-crafted indie game that resonates with a specific audience.

Mini Cozy Room: Lo-Fi - Community Engagement & Media Outreach

Despite having a humble 1,700 wishlists before its launch, Mini Cozy Room: Lo-Fi saw a surge in interest due to a combination of targeted marketing efforts, positive media coverage, and the game's inherent appeal to the "cozy" and "lo-fi" communities.

The developers issued a press release about the game, which was picked up by gaming news outlets like Eneba¹⁹ and 24Indie²⁰. They also provided review copies to content creators, such as the YouTube channel Nyanco Channel, which is part of a Steam curator group²¹. Throughout development, the developers maintained a social media presence and have a Linktree connecting directly to their X and YouTube accounts where they keep their community updated. They have clearly put an active effort into fostering a community around their game and they use the Steam platform²² for continuous improvement, promising regular updates driven by community feedback.

The marketing for Mini Cozy Room: Lo-Fi appears to be a grassroots effort focused on community engagement and leveraging the game's unique appeal. There is no evidence of a large-scale advertising campaign, just a focus on the basics.

Ropuka's Idle Island - Social Media & Positive Press

Based on its surge in popularity after an initially quiet launch, the cosy desktop game Ropuka's Idle Island appears to have benefited from a combination of positive press, viral social media moments, and active community engagement from its developers. Starting from humble beginnings with around 3,000 wishlists at launch, Ropuka's Idle Island went on to generate an estimated 40,000 sales within its first month.

The game's developers, Moczan, Little Chmura, and Begoña Pereda, engaged in some direct marketing efforts. They announced the game's release on X, describing it as a "playable desktop sticker" where players care for a frog who tends to his garden²³. They also posted on Reddit's r/cozygames to announce the game, highlighting its idle mechanics and stamp collection feature²⁴.

The developers have also committed to updating the game with new content, mentioning plans for new decorations, music, and a highly requested Mac port, indicating ongoing development and a desire to keep the player base engaged. These updates, along with the addition of new items, have been noted by players and contribute to the game's success^25,26.

The game gained considerable traction on TikTok, with videos showcasing its cosy aesthetic and simple gameplay²⁷. PC Gamer featured the game, with a writer expressing their obsession after spending 25 hours with the "adorable grass-cutting frog"²⁵. This kind of in-depth, positive coverage from a major gaming publication likely drove significant traffic to the game's Steam page.

The combination of positive press, organic social media spread, and dedicated developer engagement likely contributed to the game's success despite its initially low profile.

Digsium - How YouTube Can All The Difference

Digsium experienced the kind of surge in popularity that most developers could only dream of. Developed and published by Rat Monthly, it is described as a "short incremental journey about digging up ancient relics and building the greatest museum ever". A simple game at heart, Digsium offers complex addictive gameplay. It had humble beginnings at launch however, with only around 100 estimated wishlists. Despite this, it now estimated to have sold over 80,000 copies.

The sudden interest in Digsium can be attributed to several factors that created a viral loop, amplifying its visibility and attracting a large player base. The game was featured by several YouTubers who specialise in indie and incremental games. One video, titled "I Accidentally 100%ed Digseum And It Was Brilliant," by DangerouslyFunny has over 500,000 views and highlights the game's addictive nature²⁸.

Digsium also featured in another video highlighting the top 25 indie games of December 2024²⁹ which praised the game for its compelling "numbers go up" gameplay, which appeals to a core aspect of the incremental genre. The YouTuber noted that despite having fewer than 500 Steam wishlists at release, the game achieved an impressive 2,000 Steam reviews shortly after, suggesting a strong word-of-mouth effect.

Digsium gained significant traction on TikTok, with users sharing short videos of their gameplay. It is not clear whether the developers actively pushed the game on platforms like TikTok, but the game's satisfying mechanics and colourful pixel graphics lend themselves to short viral video clips. The developer's approach of creating a polished, short, and affordable experience appears to have resonated with players, leading to overwhelmingly positive reviews.

Conclusion

Navigating the landscape of Steam wishlists and sales conversions is a complex challenge for any developer. Ultimately, there is no "golden number" of wishlists that ensures a game will be a commercial success. While the analysis shows a clear correlation between a higher number of wishlists and increased sales, the considerable variation, especially for games with fewer than 10,000 wishlists, underscores that this is just one piece of the puzzle. The most crucial takeaway is that no amount of pre-launch hype or marketing can salvage a game that is fundamentally flawed. A buggy, unengaging, or poorly designed game will inevitably struggle to convert interest into sales, as evidenced by the significantly lower sales ratios for games with negative reviews.

The idea of a universal wishlist-to-sales ratio is a misnomer in a market as diverse as Steam. The data clearly demonstrates that conversion rates fluctuate significantly between different market segments. Developers should therefore be cautious about relying on generic benchmarks. For more accurate and meaningful forecasting, it is essential to analyse the performance of titles that are similar in genre, style, and scope to your own. This targeted approach will lead to more realistic expectations and better-informed launch strategies.

Finally, for developers who may be discouraged by low pre-launch wishlist numbers, the case studies of games like Nubby's Number Factory, Metal Garden, and Digseum offer a powerful lesson: a launch is not the end of your game's journey. Even after release, there are numerous opportunities to generate momentum. The strategic use of press releases, dedicated community engagement, targeted influencer outreach, and the viral potential of social media platforms like TikTok can ignite interest and drive sales long after launch day. Success in the current market is a combination of creating a quality product and employing a nimble, ongoing marketing effort that continues to build an audience over time.

References

1. https://howtomarketagame.com/2024/01/29/do-wishlists-matter-any-more/
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy4j2OySBMI
3. https://gamalytic.com/blog/exploring-steam-wishlist-sale-ratio
4. https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/revealed-the-state-of-steam-wishlist
5. https://www.circana.com/post/u-s-video-game-market-to-decline-in-2024-but-circana-forecasts-2025-rebound
6. https://www.ft.com/content/cc6bd66c-6341-4https367-85cc-86d274102378
7. https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/steam-the-new-wishlists-to-first
8. https://donislawdev.com/my-first-indie-steam-game-revenue-first-month-in-early-access-yerba-mate-tycoon/
9. https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/1ad5xjh/week_1_sales_to_month_1_and_year_1_sales_heres_my/
10. https://impress.games/steam-wishlists-sales-calculator
11. https://www.gamesindustry.biz/newzoo-pc-and-console-gaming-declined-by-2-to-802bn-in-2024
12. https://allcorrectgames.com/insights/the-gaming-market-in-2024/
13. https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/video-game-console-market-faces-significant-decline-in-2024-but-signs-of-recovery-emerge
14. https://gamemaker.io/en/blog/following-the-fun-nubbys-number-factory
15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNY6dWIyr6c
16. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhBRh2IVklU
17. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnT4WI1AdT4
18. https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/1jxt7am/went_steam_dumpster_diving_and_found_a_gem_this/
19. https://www.eneba.com/hub/news/lo-fi-focus-game-mini-cozy-room-debuts-on-pc/
20. https://24indie.com/mini-cozy-room-lo-fi-your-desktop-sanctuary-awaits/
21. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXNBZeTXEWM
22. https://steamcommunity.com/app/3511030/allnews/
23. https://x.com/ropukagame?lang=en
24. https://www.reddit.com/r/cozygames/comments/1i6jlcq/weve_made_an_idle_game_in_the_form_of_a_playable/
25. https://www.pcgamer.com/games/ive-already-spent-25-hours-with-this-idle-game-where-an-adorable-grass-cutting-frog-keeps-me-company-on-my-desktop-and-its-safe-to-say-im-obsessed/
26. https://www.reddit.com/r/CozyGamers/comments/1iqutzv/ropukas_idle_island_runs_perfect_asis_and_exudes/
27. https://www.tiktok.com/@cozywithronnie/video/7465941304376085768
28. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW4MBrou-YE
29. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FzhDySkL5g